In the wake of a 26% rally in the S&P 500, the strongest four weeks since 1933, which has taken the index up to its downward trending 100-day moving average line, the overriding question remains: Was it merely a bear market rally with all the attendant vulnerabilities to follow, or have investors witnessed the beginning of a sustainable bull market in equities? My bottom line is that the fundamentals are moving in the right direction, but they are not yet strong enough to sustain a bull market, especially in view of the severity and after effects of the worst credit crunch and global recession in modern history. However, I do believe that a durable double bottom occurred on November 21st and March 9th marking the lows for this bear market. A great many risks remain, but many "second derivative" metrics are turning less negative.
